The US session (New York open · the afternoon drive) · updated 2026-08-25 12:00 UTC.
Good morning — the story carries over. Bitcoin is knocking on $80,000 again, carried by U.S. deregulation hopes, while oil slips as Washington's Iran pressure campaign continues without fresh secondary sanctions. Prior session's script, still playing: the tape continues, not reverses.
The calendar is light — CB Consumer Confidence is the only medium-tag item, surrounded by low-impact noise: ADP employment, Case-Shiller home prices, new home sales, Richmond Fed, and two Barkin appearances. API inventories close the window, but headlines are likely to keep doing the heavy lifting.
Watch risk appetite: bitcoin at 79,375.5 sits just below a 79,646.7 shelf — a break reopens the door to $80,000. Gold is firm, with no tested ceiling above; oil is oversold (H1 RSI 28.1), so watch for a bounce at 81.74. USD/JPY is coiled between 159.19467 and 159.37077 — a breakout either way is live. If momentum fades, gold losing 4,625.57 is the first hint.
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### US SESSION TECHNICAL BAROMETER
- EUR/USD — NEUTRAL: D1 up, H4 down, H1 mixed. H4 RSI 53.0, H1 46.5. Low in range: 1.1 ATR above support 1.16550, 4.1 ATR to resistance 1.16873.
- GBP/USD — BULLISH LEANING: D1 up, H4/H1 mixed. H4 RSI 54.3, H1 46.2. High in range: 0.4 ATR below resistance 1.36329, 13.1 ATR above support 1.35269.
- USD/JPY — BULLISH LEANING: D1 mixed, H4/H1 up. H4 RSI 56.2, H1 55.5. Squeezed between 159.19467 and 159.37077; a divergence warning sits against the trend.
- Gold — BULLISH CLEAR: D1/H4 up, H1 mixed. H4 RSI 65.6, H1 52.2. Support 4,625.57; no tested ceiling above — open ground overhead.
- Oil — NEUTRAL: D1 up, H4/H1 down. H4 RSI 29.8, H1 28.1 (oversold). Price is 0.3 ATR above support 81.74, with 3.1 ATR of room to resistance 83.80.
- Bitcoin — BULLISH CLEAR: D1/H4 up, H1 mixed. H4 RSI 67.5, H1 52.3. Support 78,651.5, resistance 79,646.7 — evenly balanced room.
- Ethereum — BULLISH LEANING: D1 up, H4 mixed, H1 down. H4 RSI 64.8, H1 51.4. Support 2,442.4, resistance 2,486.5.
25 Aug 12:15 UTCUSD Low
25 Aug 12:30 UTCUSD Low
25 Aug 13:00 UTCEUR Low
25 Aug 13:00 UTCUSD Low
25 Aug 13:00 UTCUSD Low
25 Aug 14:00 UTCUSD Medium
25 Aug 14:00 UTCUSD Low
25 Aug 14:00 UTCUSD Low
25 Aug 20:00 UTCUSD Low
25 Aug 20:30 UTCUSD Low