The US session (New York open · the afternoon drive) · updated 2026-09-25 12:00 UTC.
Good morning. The dollar story is the one Morgan Stanley just publicly changed its mind on, while the wires stay parked on stablecoins — the Fed's GENIUS Act framework, the CFTC's tokenized-asset guidance, and Tether taking USDT back to Bitcoin. Equities in Europe are climbing as oil slips; bitcoin is above $83K, and the majors are running hot, with SOL, XRP and LINK all printing overbought RSI readings.
Today's US calendar is modest but not empty: durable goods orders (headline and core, both low tier), the revised UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations (medium tier), and two Fed speakers — Schmid and Hammack — on the wires.
What to watch: USD/JPY holds the BULLISH LEANING tag at 157.482, and the 157.28018 support is still the line — hold it and the lean has something to stand on. That H1 Bollinger squeeze remains the tightest in 120 bars, and squeezes tend to resolve rather than fizzle. Gold stays BEARISH CLEAR at 4342.88, with the 4333.73 floor just 0.6 ATR beneath and 4359.91 overhead. And with the tilt gauge having flipped repeatedly on USD/JPY and gold in 24 hours, treat any single label change as noise, not a turn.
25 Sep 12:30 UTCUSD Low
25 Sep 12:30 UTCUSD Low
25 Sep 13:20 UTCUSD Low
25 Sep 14:00 UTCUSD Medium
25 Sep 14:00 UTCUSD Medium
25 Sep 18:00 UTCUSD Low