The US session (New York open · the afternoon drive) · updated 2026-09-30 12:00 UTC.
Good morning. The overnight backdrop is a familiar one: junk bonds are heading for their worst month since 2022 after a punishing global selloff, and global benchmarks are mostly higher despite the Iran war rumbling on in the background — a resilient shrug rather than a rally.
Today's US diary is the real act. Core PCE and Final GDP both land at 12:30 UTC, with ADP Non-Farm Employment Change alongside them — a triple dose of US data in one print. Goods Trade Balance, Personal Income and Spending, and Prelim Wholesale Inventories follow, then Chicago PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, and FOMC members Barkin and Cook, with President Trump speaking later. Note Canada's Bank Holiday, so CAD liquidity will be thin.
Yesterday's dollar bid is still the thread: EUR/USD has flipped to BEARISH CLEAR at 1.13576, though it now sits just 0.2 ATR under resistance at 1.13591 with the floor far below — stretched, so mind a snapback. GBP/USD has gone NEUTRAL at 1.32926 after flipping label 18 times in 24 hours — noise, not a turn. USD/JPY is NEUTRAL at 157.024, coiled inside a squeeze between 156.89 and 157.22. Gold has flipped back to BEARISH LEANING at 4190.59 and still carries a divergence warning. Oil is NEUTRAL at 89.78, pressed against 89.86. Crypto: Ethereum BULLISH CLEAR at 2696.1, Bitcoin NEUTRAL at 83811.2, XRP the quiet outperformer at 1.5132.
Watch the dollar's reaction to the PCE and GDP prints above all — it's the thread running through the majors.
30 Sep 12:00 UTCCAD Holiday
30 Sep 12:15 UTCUSD Medium
30 Sep 12:30 UTCUSD High
30 Sep 12:30 UTCUSD High
30 Sep 12:30 UTCUSD Medium
30 Sep 12:30 UTCUSD Low
30 Sep 12:30 UTCUSD Low
30 Sep 12:30 UTCUSD Low
30 Sep 12:30 UTCUSD Low
30 Sep 13:00 UTCCHF Low
30 Sep 13:45 UTCUSD Low
30 Sep 14:30 UTCCHF Low
30 Sep 14:30 UTCUSD Low
30 Sep 17:30 UTCUSD Low
30 Sep 19:25 UTCUSD Low