AI AssistantAI Market SuiteHomeAI AssistantAI Market SuiteHomeFX, gold and oil are closed — crypto trades on. Session preps resume Sunday 21:00 UTC. Updated 2026-09-27 12:00 UTC.
Good morning, and welcome to the weekend edition. Pour the coffee — this was one of those weeks where the calendar did the talking.
The headline act was gold. Kitco's latest weekly survey found Wall Street "holds out hope for gold despite fall to $4,445/oz," while Main Street "pared" its bullish majority with payrolls now in focus. FOREX.com noted gold "started the new week on the back foot after ending a three-week losing streak with gains over the final two sessions of last week" — a nice way of saying the metal spent most of the week searching for a floor. Over in FX, DailyForex's weekly forecast flagged that "NASDAQ 100, forex, gold, copper and silver reflect shifting pressure around rates, demand, risk appetite and key technical levels." Rates, demand, risk appetite — that's the whole stew in one sentence.
And the bond market is the pot everyone's watching. One headline this week asked plainly: "Why the upcoming jobs report could send 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields surging." That's the thread running through everything below.
Let's start with our own read, because that's the map we navigate by.
Gold is our clearest bearish signal right now — a 27/100 bear tilt, with D1 down and H4 down. It's sitting at major support 4333.73 (0.6 ATR below, formerly resistance) with resistance at 4359.91 (1.0 ATR, formerly support). The chart is evenly balanced above and below, so this is a coiled, decision-time setup — not a trending one. The web agrees it's a standoff: FOREX.com called it "Five Weeks at Support—Breakout Looms," and StoneX described gold "trapped in a tightening range at the yearly low, with the next breakout likely to determine the August outlook." Our read says the lean is down; the street says it's unresolved. Both can be true — a bear tilt inside a range is exactly what that looks like.
EUR/USD is neutral (52/100) — D1 mixed, H4 and H1 up. Price sits 1.0 ATR above support at 1.14623 with a generous 11.9 ATR of room up to resistance at 1.15458. Low in the range, structure intact. GBP/USD is neutral too (48/100), all three timeframes mixed, with no tested ceiling above and the floor far below — price is stretched. USD/JPY leans bullish (57/100) on an H1-up, H4-down split, with H4 RSI at 66.2. Support 157.28 (1.5 ATR) and resistance 157.82 (2.5 ATR) leave it evenly balanced. Oil is neutral (49/100) — D1 up, H4/H1 mixed, H4 RSI a soft 35.1, sitting right under resistance at 92.57.
Crypto never sleeps, and this weekend it's the only game in town — so let's give it its due.
Our barometer is genuinely constructive here: Bitcoin carries a 72/100 bull tilt, an uptrend on all timeframes with firm RSI and a positive 8-hour move. Ethereum is 65/100 bullish, up across H1, H4 and D1 with firm momentum. That's the strongest structural read on our whole board this week.
The backdrop is a regulatory newsflow week. The Fed "proposed stablecoin rules under the GENIUS Act" and "requested comment on two proposals for stablecoin issuers," while the SEC issued "fresh crypto guidance on staking tokens, buybacks, and the Howey Test." Not all of it was comforting — one CryptoRank headline warned a "Fed proposed stablecoin rule could trigger a 48-hour liquidation run." On the institutional side, CoinDesk reported "Binance's $100M Circle (CRCL) deal boosts USDC in stablecoin race with Tether, analysts say." And there's a changing of the guard: SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce steps down on October 2.
The street's tone is split — CoinDesk's week-ahead piece had "analysts warn more downside lies ahead" even as BTC steadied, while Yellow.com carried a call for Ethereum to "reach $10K in the next bull cycle." Our charts lean bullish; the commentary is more cautious. Hold both.
All roads lead to the labour market. Kitco framed it neatly — Main Street "pared" its gold bullishness "with payrolls now in focus." CNBC described the dollar and bond markets as "on edge," and Schaeffer's flagged "jobs data highlights busy economic calendar." On earnings, FOREX.com's equities outlook put Nike, Micron and Carnival in the spotlight — Micron "keeps the AI trade in focus." And CNBC noted Jackson Hole gathering "global economic leaders," with Bessent's market intervention "piling pressure on Warsh."
It's a month-and-quarter-end week, and LiteFinance's calendar overview calls it "a transitional period between months and quarters" where "unexpected market movements" are the norm.
- Mon 28: ECB President Lagarde speaks (13:30 UTC).
- Tue 29: A big one — RBA Cash Rate and Rate Statement (04:30 UTC), plus the RBA Press Conference and a second Lagarde appearance. Also CAD GDP, US CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS.
- Wed 30: Australian CPI across the board (01:30 UTC) — headline, y/y and Trimmed Mean. Then German Prelim CPI, US ADP, and the marquee event: US Core PCE Price Index m/m (12:30 UTC).
Three things. One: that Core PCE print on Wednesday — it's the inflation catalyst FOREX.com said gold traders are "awaiting." Two: the RBA and Australian CPI double-header Tuesday–Wednesday, which could shake AUD pairs. Three: the jobs report chatter feeding directly into those long-end Treasury yields. And because it's quarter-end, expect some window-dressing noise that doesn't mean much.
Have a restful weekend, keep your risk small and your curiosity large — and remember, this is educational context, not financial advice. See you Monday.