AI AssistantAI Market SuiteHomeAI AssistantAI Market SuiteHomeFX, gold and oil are closed — crypto trades on. Session preps resume Sunday 21:00 UTC. Updated 2026-10-11 12:02 UTC.
Grab your coffee — this was one of those weeks where the calendar did the talking, and next week it shouts.
The headline that framed everything came from Reuters: "Wall St Week Ahead — Bank earnings, CPI headline busy markets week as S&P 500 hovers near records." That's the whole mood in one line. US equities are parked near all-time highs, and the market is holding its breath for a data-and-earnings double feature.
Meanwhile, the regulators kept busy. France's finance committee backed taxing Bitcoin-to-stablecoin swaps starting in 2027, and separately floated an exit tax on crypto holders moving abroad with €800K (Crypto Briefing, Decrypt). Decrypt noted the committee then rejected the budget — so watch that space. India's central bank is trying to shore up the rupee as it nears record lows (FT), and the DOJ is reportedly looking at Binance again (BeInCrypto). On the friendlier side, Thailand set a start date for Bitcoin and Ether ETF rules with licensed custodians (BitKE).
Here's our own higher-timeframe read — the structural picture across D1, H4 and H1:
The dollar pairs are leaning bearish, and we'll say so plainly. EUR/USD carries a bear tilt (35/100) — D1 down, H4 up, H1 down — with H4 RSI at 44.1. It's sitting close to resistance at 1.12023 (just 0.2 ATR away) while major support at 1.11709 sits a hefty 2.9 ATR below. GBP/USD is similar (39/100, bearish leaning), closer to support at 1.32247 (0.7 ATR) than resistance at 1.32508 (1.5 ATR), though its 30-minute move was significant at 1.08 ATR.
USD/JPY is our neutral one — but it leans bullish (60/100). D1 is up, H4 down, H1 mixed, and price is sitting right at resistance 158.25017 (0.1 ATR) with 1.0 ATR of room down to support at 158.09700. A coiled spring.
Gold is genuinely neutral (53/100) — D1 down, but H4 and H1 both up. RSI is running warm (H4 61.8, H1 64.2), and price is close to resistance 4197.84 (0.2 ATR) versus support 4182.44 (1.2 ATR). Structure mixed.
Oil is our clearest bull (77/100). D1 and H4 both up, H1 mixed, RSI mid-50s. It's wedged between 92.57 support and 93.19 resistance — both within 1 ATR — so a breakout either way is the story.
Crypto never sleeps, and this weekend it's the only game in town.
Bitcoin carries a bearish lean on our read (42/100) — D1 down, H4 mixed, H1 up. It's boxed between support at 82,828 and resistance at 83,065, both within 1 ATR, with H4 RSI at 47.6. The 30-minute move is active (0.64 ATR), so it's not quiet — just undecided.
Ethereum leans bearish too (36/100), with H1 down and H4 RSI at a soft 38.6. It has roughly equal room to support 2,486.5 (1.4 ATR) and resistance 2,506.5 (1.5 ATR).
The street's attention is on regulation: France's stablecoin-swap tax and exit tax, Lithuania tightening reporting under the EU framework (TOKENPOST), Thailand's ETF rules, and the US reportedly planning to seize $1B in crypto linked to Iran (Bessent, via TradingView).
All eyes on Wednesday. Core CPI, CPI m/m and y/y all land at 12:30 UTC — the week's biggest print. Before that, Lagarde speaks twice (02:10 and 08:30 UTC) and Bailey and Macklem take the mic. Thursday brings UK GDP, Australian employment, and Core PPI. Bank earnings run alongside it all.
A genuinely stacked calendar. If you're learning, this is a great week to watch how markets react to CPI rather than react to it — volatility around high-impact prints is where beginners learn the most expensive lessons. Keep your notes open.
- Wed 12:30 UTC — US CPI (the main event)
- Wed — Lagarde, Bailey, Macklem speak
- Thu — UK GDP m/m, AUD employment, US Core PPI
- Ongoing — French crypto tax developments and Binance headlines
You've got this. One calm, curious week at a time — and remember, this is educational context, not financial advice.