CLARITY Act Odds Collapse From 75% to 10% — XRP Regulatory Hopes Crushed? - CCN.com

The odds of the CLARITY Act passing have plummeted from 75% to 10% on major prediction markets, marking a dramatic shift in how traders view the bill’s legislative future. While the headline frames this as a blow to XRP’s regulatory hopes, the move is better understood as a reassessment of political realities. Prediction markets aggregate sentiment, but they are not infallible; a 10% implied probability still leaves meaningful room for surprise.

The CLARITY Act, formally aimed at establishing a clear federal framework for digital assets, has long been seen as a potential catalyst for XRP by resolving longstanding questions about its classification as a security. A collapse in its odds suggests the market now expects the bill to stall in committee or fail to secure the necessary votes in the current session. For XRP specifically, this means the regulatory clarity many hoped would arrive via legislation may instead continue to hinge on court rulings and SEC enforcement actions.

Going forward, observers should watch for official statements from congressional sponsors, hearing schedules, and any proposed amendments. Also relevant are recent SEC comments on its own rulemaking priorities. The odds change is a signal, not a verdict — legislative outcomes remain inherently uncertain.