On the six-month anniversary of the Iran war, divisions appear on Wall Street over the trajectory for oil prices

Six months after the outbreak of the Iran war, Wall Street is split on where oil prices head next. On one side of the debate sits the recent uptick in supply flowing from the Gulf, which has offered some relief to a market that spent the early months of the conflict bracing for acute shortages. That incremental barrel flow appears to be anchoring a more benign price outlook among some analysts.

Yet strategists at RBC Capital Markets are pushing back against that complacency. They caution that a number of "hurdles" remain on the road ahead, even as near-term inventories build. The warning underscores how fragile the current equilibrium is: while headline supply numbers look healthier, the war's lingering impact on shipping lanes, infrastructure, and spare capacity can still reassert itself quickly.

For investors, the key question is which force wins out over the second half of the year—the visible supply recovery or the structural strain beneath it. With sentiment divided, price forecasts are unusually wide, meaning volatility itself may be the only reliable constant. Watching Gulf export data, war-related disruptions, and inventory draws will matter more than any single forecast.