August jobs report could show a summer slump in hiring. Haitian refugees are a wild card.

Wall Street economists expect the U.S. economy to have added only a modest number of jobs in August, raising the possibility of a third consecutive summer hiring slump. August is traditionally a difficult month to seasonally adjust for back-to-school transitions and weather disruptions, which often makes these initial readings volatile and prone to later revision. However, a weaker headline payroll figure may not paint the full picture if other components of the report, such as wage growth, show underlying resilience.

The report introduces a unique analytical wrinkle: the recent influx of Haitian refugees and asylum seekers. These newcomers enter the labor force as workers and job seekers, but their classification in the household and establishment surveys can distort month-to-month estimates. This migration-driven wild card complicates the read on whether soft hiring reflects cyclical weakness or simply data noise from a changing workforce.

For investors, the August print provides the final major employment snapshot before the next Federal Reserve meeting, offering potential insight into the balance between cooling demand and labor supply. The challenge lies in distinguishing the signal from the noise.