'We simply don't know' - JP Morgan struggling to forecast oil prices due to Trump's war with Iran - BBC

JP Morgan has acknowledged that it is struggling to forecast oil prices amid heightened geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, according to the BBC. The bank's candid admission — "we simply don't know" — reflects how unpredictable geopolitical shocks can overwhelm the models analysts typically rely on, such as supply, demand, inventories and historical price relationships.

Oil markets are especially sensitive to Middle East instability because the region accounts for a substantial share of global crude production and exports, and because a significant portion of the world's oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz. When the risk of conflict rises, traders often build in a "geopolitical risk premium," meaning prices can move on headlines rather than on fundamentals alone.

For observers, the key takeaway is uncertainty itself. When a major institution says it cannot confidently forecast prices, it signals that outcomes may hinge on political and military developments that are difficult to quantify. What to watch: shifts in US-Iran tensions, any disruption to shipping or supply, and whether other forecasters revise their outlooks similarly.