Oil could top $150 a barrel if supplies further tighten, Bank of America warns

Bank of America strategists have flagged a scenario in which Brent crude could climb above $150 a barrel, according to a note reported by Dow Jones. The trigger is not a change in demand but supply: if disruptions tied to fighting in the Middle East persist into spring 2027, the bank warns, the market could tighten enough to send prices sharply higher.

The relevance for markets goes beyond the energy sector. Oil is a cost input across transport, manufacturing and utilities, so a sustained spike would feed into headline inflation and could complicate expectations for interest rate policy. Energy producers would typically see revenue effects, while fuel-intensive industries face margin pressure — though the timing and scale of any pass-through vary.

It is worth noting the bank frames this as a conditional outcome, not a forecast. The key variable to watch is whether the disruption persists, since a shorter conflict would likely mean a smaller supply impact. Traders may also monitor OPEC+ spare capacity and inventory data as signals of how much cushion the market retains.