POLL ECB to hike rates again in December as inflation almost doubles 2% target - Reuters

A Reuters poll indicates economists expect the European Central Bank to raise interest rates again in December, with inflation running at nearly twice the ECB's 2% target. The survey reflects a widely held view that policymakers will continue tightening rather than pause, even as growth prospects in the euro area remain uncertain.

The signal matters for markets because rate expectations feed directly into bond yields, the euro's exchange rate, and equity valuations. Higher rates typically tighten financial conditions, which can pressure rate-sensitive sectors and support the currency, though the actual outcome depends on incoming data. The ECB's decisions are made meeting by meeting, not pre-committed, so polling expectations are informative rather than definitive.

What to watch: the next inflation readings, wage growth, and any shift in ECB commentary about the pace of tightening. Also monitor how euro-area government bonds and the euro respond around the December meeting, since markets may already partly price in a hike. Divergence between the ECB and other major central banks could amplify currency moves.