The global economy is starting to look K-shaped. Here are the winners and losers, and where the U.S. fits.

The International Monetary Fund's latest assessment points to a global economy increasingly shaped like a "K" — a split path in which some economies pull ahead while others lag. According to the IMF, countries less exposed to the oil shock and those benefiting from demand tied to artificial intelligence are climbing the upper arm of that K, while more vulnerable economies trail on the lower one. The framing matters because it moves beyond the idea of a single global cycle: growth is becoming more uneven across countries, not just slower or faster overall.

For markets, the split suggests that aggregate headlines about "the global economy" may say less than country-level fundamentals. Economies with smaller energy-import bills and stronger AI-related investment and demand appear better positioned, while oil-sensitive economies face a heavier burden. The United States' place in this divide — and whether its AI-linked momentum offsets other drags — is a key question the IMF's view raises.

What to watch: oil price trends, the durability of AI-driven demand, and whether the gap between the K's two arms widens or narrows in coming IMF updates.